The National Party will deliver a Surplus by 2028/29

National's 2028/29 surplus forecast (put at $2.6 billion in Budget 2026) relies on the government's own OBEGALX measure, introduced by Willis, to exclude ACC's revenue and expenses from the calculation. 

Using the traditional OBEGAL measure that all previous governments have been assessed against, the books would not return to surplus until at least mid-2030.