Police Data show 3 Strikes Works

Patros claimed on social media on 14 July that police data he cited proved Act's proposed three-strikes burglary policy would work.

It did not. The data showed only a correlation between decreasing use of formal warnings and falling reoffending, not that prior warnings caused the decline.

Other explanations fit the same data at least as well, including a natural decline in offending as people age and their circumstances change, and reduced recidivism linked to structural barriers in accessing government support services.